Commentary Archive
Tuesday
Mar232010

The economics education of Mr. Obama

It may be time to dust off George Orwell’s satire, Animal Farm (1945), and to heed again its lesson on abuse of power.  Though he was sympathetic to socialism, Orwell was reacting to the extremes of Stalin’s oppressive hand.  The egalitarian society where "all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others" reminds us of the turpitude that drove “health care reform” against the will of the people.  Washington knows better than the individual what is good for him.  

Four years later, in Nineteen Eighty-Four, Orwell defined a framework on the nature of collectivist dystopia: doublethink (contemporary example: the health care bill will reduce the deficit, even as Democrats make expensive side deals); big brother (force insurance coverage by auditing business and individual); memory hole (forget that candidate Obama promised to cut wasteful spending from the budget line by line, the national debt doesn’t matter to President Obama).

Last Saturday before the fateful health care vote, The Wall Street Journal published a 1996 article by Milton Friedman in which he quotes an Alexander Solzhenitsyn novel describing the perils of state-run health care: from treatment quotas to contentious relationships between doctors and patients.1  Friedman traced the origins of the actual U.S. versions of these problems directly to government meddling with market mechanisms: the medical insurance tax exemption given to the corporations rather than to the individual, the expansion of Medicare and Medicaid that results in de facto price controls and rationing, and the institution of “managed” care.  Intermediaries separate the consumer from the supplier and the market cannot work freely.

The present administration’s and Congress’ aversion to market solutions to health care and other challenges is entirely consistent with a stunning avoidance of sound economics.  Obama’s immediate circle of advisors is forced into contradictions between liberal ideology and properly conducted study or foundational principles.  For example, advisor Larry Summers describes his intellectual admiration of Austrian free market economist Fredrick Hayek thusly, “What I tried to leave my students with is the view that the invisible hand is more powerful than the [un]hidden hand.  Things will happen in well-organized efforts without direction, controls, plans.  That's the consensus among economists.  That's the Hayek legacy.”2  And Council of Economic Advisors chair, Christina Romer, wrote in 2007 “tax increases are highly contractionary.”3  Both supported a deficit-busting “stimulus” with meager tax cuts and heavy government interference.

Remarkably, Obama’s programs do nothing to increase supply of products and services, almost as if Washington assumes supply is infinite and can only be regulated or taxed, rather than created and allocated by market prices and demand.  In health care reform, demand is increased but supply of insurance and treatment is managed and prices controlled.  In Orwellian newspeak, a government “insurance exchange” replaces “free market”, and interstate commerce is expressly shunned.  Capital will be taxed at a higher rate without considering the inevitability of its eventual flight to safer havens outside our country.  As our trade deficit deepens and jobs move from our shores, labor is made more costly by increased payroll taxes and regulation while Germany demonstrates that worldwide competitiveness is a function of lower labor costs and increased productivity.4   

All of this is ominous: as the neo-Keynesians scamper around to provide theoretical underpinnings for Obama, the Financial Times reports,5 “Credit Suisse produced a provocative research report pointing out that the country whose debt profile most resembles that of Greece is - hold your breath - the U.S.” 

Before we meet the fate of Greece, then, Obama’s advisors might do well to revisit Hayek, author of the classic repudiation of a command economy, The Road to Serfdom, with which Keynes enthusiastically concurred.  In his Nobel Prize lecture6, Hayek concluded,

“The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men's fatal striving to control society - a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals.”

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[1] “A Way Out of Soviet-Style Health Care, Solzhenitsyn's prophetic warning about the depersonalization of medicine.”   The Wall Street Journal, 20 March 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704784904575111273624979544.html?KEYWORDS=milton+friedman

[2] Lawrence Summers, quoted by Yergin, Daniel. & Stanislaw. Joseph.   The Commanding Heights: The Battle Between Government and the Marketplace that Is Remaking the Modern World. New York: Simon & Schuster. 1998

[3] Romer, Christina D., Romer, David H. “The Macroeconomic Effects Of Tax Changes: Estimates Based On A New Measure Of Fiscal Shocks”, March 2007 http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~cromer/RomerDraft307.pdf

[4] “Europe's Stragglers Find Villain: Germany's Competitiveness.” The Wall Street Journal, 22 March 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704534904575131980473107158.html?KEYWORDS=Europe%27s+Stragglers+Find+Villain%3A+Germany%27s+Competitiveness

[5 “Is the dollar rally about to come to a nasty end?” Financial Times, 20 March 2010, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0608c18c-33c1-11df-8b99-00144feabdc0.html

[6] Hayek, Friedrich August von. “The Pretence of Knowledge.” Nobel Prize lecture, 11 December 1974, http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1974/hayek-lecture.html

Wednesday
Mar172010

Freedom from China

China wagged a stentorian finger at the U.S. this week.  The People’s Republic is angered by our sale of arms to the Republic of China (Taiwan), by our interlocution with the Dalai Lama, but largely because they feel increasing pressure to float their currency, the renminbi.1  As our largest creditor—China holds almost $1 trillion of U.S. Treasuries2, nearly 12% of our public debt—this last vestige of communism believes they may lecture the last bastion of capitalism in defending a protectionist exchange policy.  They may have a point.

By borrowing heavily from China, have we left ourselves vulnerable to economic scolding?  Partly because of low labor rates and partly because the Chinese “peg” the renminbi to the dollar to artificially depress the apparent prices of their products, they run large trade surpluses.  In 2009, we exported $69 billion to China, but imported $296 billion—a deficit of $227 billion.3  In comparison, our trade with the European Union is balanced as the Euro floats freely against the dollar: $221 billion in imports, $281 billion in exports, for a deficit of $60 billion.4  The Chinese government absorbs the excess supply of foreign currency received by their exporters, and has accumulated a stash of $2.4 trillion in foreign reserves.5  Some of the influx is foreign direct investment—capital that is attracted by China’s high growth and a corporate tax rate of 25% compared to 35% in the U.S.

This purposeful combination of capitalism and central control contrasts with our confounding admixture of capitalist rhetoric belying government control or influence on much of our industry and the loss of focus of government’s role in a free economy.  At least the Chinese do socialism with no pretense.

The law provides that, semi-annually, the Treasury Department must identify any country that manipulates its currency "for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade."6  The next report is due on April 15, and 130 member of Congress have already written to Secretary Geithner advocating for the declaration.7  What happens next is unclear.  The law calls for the Treasury Secretary to negotiate with the offending country, but "shall not be required to initiate negotiations in cases where such negotiations would have a serious detrimental impact on vital national economic and security interests."  Ay, there's the rub: Geithner needs Chinese credit to fund his boss’s deficits.  Imposing punitive tariffs, as we have done selectively last year, may set off a trade war and aggravate the recession.

One may wonder why we would object to a country selling us products at artificially depressed prices.  Such an arrangement enriches our consumers.  Under normal conditions price dislocations correct themselves and excess reserves in the exporting country find their way back to the importing country by the way of investments, trade, or exchange of currency that results in price balancing.  These market mechanisms are averted in the current environment because the Treasury competes with private entities for those surpluses.  China’s unpegging the currency will be healthy in the long term, because it will allow markets to determine capital and trade flows.  In the transient period, unpegging will increase prices of Chinese products or substitutes for those products, and may raise interest rates as the Treasury begins to lose a source of cheap money.  Neither is politically desirable, yet pressure will grow for free floating currency from industries and labor unions who feel they are being disadvantaged.  Not all industries will benefit equally from an exchange readjustment because China will still have comparative cost advantage in many labor intensive sectors; but market-determined exchange rates are always better for free global trade.

As long as we are dependent on debt financing of public programs that seems deceptively painless and low cost, and on elevated consumption of cheap products to the detriment of saving and investment, and as long as China is willing to hold huge dollar reserves and buy Treasury securities, a tense economic and financial arrangement with China will exist.

Free trade should be fair trade, but confrontational dialog and retributive reactions (raising tariffs) hide weak domestic policy.  Pressure on China to float the renminbi should be accompanied by a more competitive business tax regime—to attract capital to our shores, and by a commitment to smaller, less intrusive government—to reduce our dependence on debt.  Putting America on sounder capitalist footing will immunize us against protectionism. 

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[1] “China Talks Tough to U.S.; Premier Blames American 'Trade Protectionism' for Tensions Over Currency.” The Wall Street Journal, 15 March 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703457104575121213043099350.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond&mg=com-wsj

[2] U.S. Treasury, http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

[3] Trade in Goods (Imports, Exports and Trade Balance) with China, Foreign Trade Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2010

[4] Trade in Goods (Imports, Exports and Trade Balance) with European Union, Foreign Trade Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html

[5] “China's Reserves Expand.” The Wall Street Journal, 18 January 2010, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703657604575004501953577566.html

[6] “What US law on currency manipulation says.” Reuters, 12 March 2010, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1218046820100312?type=usDollarRpt

[7] “U.S., China Up The Ante In Currency Policy Game.” The Wall Street Journal, 15 March 2010,  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703909804575124020434903644.html?mod=googlenews_wsj